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Satellite TV revenues to overtake cable this year

Bapun Raz

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Based on Digital TV Research Ltd’s forecasts for 73 countries, pay-TV revenues will climb to $173
billion (€ 121.9 billion) in 2016, up by $49 billion on 2006 but only up by $18 billion (12%) on 2010.
The Digital TV World Revenue Forecasts report stated that on-demand revenues will increase much
faster than subscription revenues, though on-
demand will only reach $5.7 billion (or 3.3% of the
total) by 2016. Report author Simon Murray said: “Subscription revenues will stutter as more homes convert to
bundles, thus reducing TV-related income.” Murray added: “DTH [DBS] revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2011. DTH revenues will reach
$86 billion in 2016, up from $71 billion in 2010.
DTH will command nearly half the total revenues by
2016, up from 43% in 2006.” The US will remain DTH market leader, though its
share of the total will fall from 54% in 2006 to 41%
in 2016. Brazil will add the most DTH revenues
($3.1 billion) between 2010 and 2016 – more than doubling its total in the process. Cable TV will begin its slide this year, with revenues
falling by $7 billion between 2010 and 2016 to $69
billion. However, cable operators will gain extra
revenues by converting subscribers to bundles. Digital cable TV revenues will climb from $43 billion
in 2010 to $62 billion in 2016 – a greater increase than DTH. China will add $4.3 billion in digital cable
TV revenues over the same period, followed by
Japan with an extra $2.6 billion. However, analogue cable TV revenues will decline
by $26 billion between 2010 and 2016 to reach
only $7 billion in 2016. India will provide $2 billion
of the 2016 total. IPTV revenues will climb to $17 billion in 2016, up
from $6 billion in 2010 and less than $1 billion in
2006. The US will remain the largest IPTV revenue
earner by taking a quarter of the 2016 total (down
from a third in 2010). Pay DTT revenues reached $1,572 million in 2010,
and will slowly grow to $2.3 billion in 2016. Italy
will supply almost a half of the 2016 total. Murray said: “The US will remain the world’s largest pay-TV revenue earner by some distance. However,
its revenues will fall by nearly $3 billion between
2010 and 2016 as homes convert to bundles and
as competition increases. On the other hand, Brazil’s revenues will more than double over the same
period, with India also enjoying impressive
growth.”




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