I see in several threads people suggesting NCF should be lowered or should be discounted. You need to look at the cost involved by different players in the industry.
Broadcasters are spending money on creating or licensing content, uplink infrastructure and earning money from consumers as well as advertisers. They are getting biggest benefit from new rules as a larger chunk of what customer is paying will come in their pocket in new system. Long term impact could be loss in advertising revenue if people stop watching their channels.
DTH operators invest in the satellite infrastructure and earn their revenue using only the NCF in new model, as against earlier when they used to set prices and get a cut on channels priced higher by giving only partial amount to broadcasters. Less revenue/profit for them will result in them not investing in additional satellite bandwidth and proving less number of channels. On the other hand they might actually start getting some revenue from FTA channel broadcasters when capacity reduces.
MSOs/LCOs are pretty much in same boat as DTH operators, except they spend on the on ground infrastructure.
One of the benefit of earlier/older model was that DTH operators and MSOs were able to negotiate much better deals with broadcasters because of bull volume involved. Now that is not an option.
With the new rules it seems like India is going towards same situation as US where cable has become very costly and people are leaning towards online content because of cost reasons in addition to the content itself.
The only way this plan would have had a glimmer of hope for customers was the 15% discount rule, which also would have helped only with GEC/Movie channels which are kind of optional as you can start watching other programs or movies on only a few channels. Sports would still not have been impacted because rights for events are only with single broadcasters hence no alternative.